The Weekly Pain Report provides a punchy, always provocative, and independent perspective on the key economic and political events moving global financial markets.
I began my investment career in the UK, in 1984, and have run investment teams in London, Bahrain and Sydney. I have lived in six countries: South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland (Eswatini), England, Bahrain and now call Australia home.
After 38 years in the financial markets I have come to terms with the fact that I am addicted to the gyrations in global capital markets. Every morning I still wake up with an insatiable curiosity and fascination for the flashing digits on my screens.
I see the world and the financial markets as a giant jigsaw puzzle. Each day we get hundreds of new jigsaw pieces, with each containing a clue and a hint of what the future might look like. Some pieces are more significant than others. My role is to put them together as quickly, and objectively, as I can.
I then share my picture with you each week.
If any of this appeals to you then please consider subscribing to my report.
All the very best,
Jonathan
PS Please see my CNBC interview, which is featured below, on Monday 24 February 2020 on the eve of the COVID crash, where I called for a 20-25% crash in markets in the next few months.
Prior to this interview I had told my subscribers, in very stark language, about the impending collapse in global economic activity. I also stated that I couldn’t believe how the world’s leading economists could not see what was staring them in the face.
Although I am not actively involved in macro markets these days, I still have them in my blood, and I enjoy my Saturday mornings, waking up bleerey eyed and getting brought to life with the passionate writings from Jonathan, who I had the privilege of meeting in the 80’s when he was based in the Gulf. I find myself occasionally strongly disagreeing with his gist, but much of the time, that in itself is great, as it causes me to reflect on my own interpretation of events. And for sure, Jonathan is one of the few that gets the relevant scale of the importance of certain issues, including all things China
Mon, Jul 11 2022
In a CNBC interview on Thursday 18 November 2021, Jonathan Pain, Author of The Pain Report, predicted that the S&P 500 would fall 15-25%.
He said: “Central banks are way, way behind the curve and have got the surge in inflation completely wrong and will now have to tighten monetary policy much quicker than the market has been anticipating.”
He now sees a further decline in the S&P 500 to 3,000 and that the world faces an energy emergency with Europe at its epicentre.
Having committed a catastrophic error, in keeping rates too low for too long, the central banks will now commit a second error and raise rates too aggressively as we enter recession.
Mon, Mar 16 2020
On Feb. 24, Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report predicted a 20% decline in the U.S. equity markets in a month. He now still sees more downside in the markets and expects the U.S. economy to contract in excess of 5% in the second quarter.
Mon, Feb 24 2020
The economic reality from the impact of the coronavirus has changed dramatically over the last three weeks, and markets aren’t pricing it in, says “The Pain Report” author, Jonathan Pain.
By Emma Young
February 15, 2019 – 9.38pm
One of the world’s foremost economic and political experts has predicted an Australian interest rate cut to 0.5 per cent and painted a picture of a future economy that revolves around electric cars, the South East Asian and Chinese economies – and of course, lithium.
He predicted the Reserve Bank would cut rates, “so aggressively it will make our eyes water”; from their current 1.5 per cent to just 0.5 per cent.
Wed, Dec 28 2022
Jonathan Pain, author of The Pain Report, says “I don’t see how the bear market is going to be over in just one year, because of the enormity … of the extraordinary increase in interest rates.”
Wed, Sep 22 2021
China’s common prosperity program is likely to slow its economic growth significantly for the next few years, says Jonathan Pain of the Pain Report.
Tue, Aug 31 2021
Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says China is one of the “great locomotives” of global economic growth, and it has contributed more to global growth than any other economy over the last decade. If China’s recovery slows, the rest of the world will also see weak growth momentum, he adds.
Tue, May 11 2021
Jonathan Pain of the Pain Report says the market is questioning the Fed’s ability to anchor inflation expectations and discusses the implications.
Fri, Oct 30 2020
The acceleration of decoupling between the U.S. and China has made China aware that the country must achieve technological self-reliance. And Jonathan Pain of the Pain Report describes the decoupling as a “technological iron curtain” between the two countries.
Mon, Jul 13 2020
Jonathan Pain of The Pain report says in this earnings season bank earnings will provide the best insights as to the potential credit losses going forward and he will examine very carefully their provisions for loan loss reserves.
Tue, June 9 2020
Jonathan Pain, author of The Pain Report, discusses the dramatic recovery of jobs in Friday’s U.S. Non Farm Payrolls data, which saw a rise of 2.5 million jobs against an expected drop of 7.5 million. With the prospect of a faster-than-expected recovery, Pain says this could be a good time to invest in hard-hit financials, which have seen dramatic declines this year.
Wed, May 13 2020
Financial markets have “run ahead of themselves” and investors should focus on the negative shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and the scale of economic dislocation, says Jonathan Pain, author of The Pain Report. He is especially cautious on U.S. equities, which he warns are too optimistic about a v-shaped recovery.
Mon, Mar 16 2020
On Feb. 24, Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report predicted a 20% decline in the U.S. equity markets in a month. He now still sees more downside in the markets and expects the U.S. economy to contract in excess of 5% in the second quarter.
Mon, Feb 24 2020
The economic reality from the impact of the coronavirus has changed dramatically over the last three weeks, and markets aren’t pricing it in, says “The Pain Report” author, Jonathan Pain.
Fri, Jan 17 2020
Gold prices have the potential to reach $1,800 per ounce, says Jonathan Pain, author of The Pain Report.
Thu, 2 Jan 2020
Following news reports that Iranian General Qassim Soleimani was killed in an airstrike in Baghdad, Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says it’s “no wonder” that crude oil prices are ratcheting higher and the significance of the commander should not be underestimated.
Mon, 16 Dec 2019
Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says he is bullish on British equities and sterling following last week’s U.K. general election result.
Wed, 25 Sep 2019
The attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil processing facilities demonstrated the “extraordinary vulnerability of the very jugular” of the oil supply system, says Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report. He also says U.S. sanctions are “crippling” and “strangling” the Iranian economy.
Thu, 5 Sep 2019
Markets are getting very confused by the rhetoric coming out of Beijing and Washington, says Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report.
Mon, 12 Aug 2019
Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says, looking at the geopolitical conflicts around the world, he doesn’t foresee any of the main players being willing to back down. He says there’s an “extraordinary spread of uncertainty” coming from the geopolitical sphere.
Mon, 1 Jul 2019
Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says the Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 summit was not as bad as it could have been, but did not have any substantive outcomes.
Wed, 12 Jun 2019
Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says the Fed is going to signal that its next move is a rate cut, but that it is not yet ready to do so.
Fri, 3 May 2019
Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says he expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 1.5 percent to 0.5 percent over the next couple of years.
Mon, 25 Mar 2019
Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report discusses what the inversion in the yield curve means. He says he respects the bond market’s message, which is “unequivocally” and “unambiguously,” that the global economy is slowing.
Mon, 25 Feb 2019
Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says the U.S. economy will slow down, but he does not expect it to enter a recession for the time being.