The Weekly Pain Report

An independent perspective of global financial markets and the world economy.

The Weekly Pain Report provides a punchy, always provocative, and independent perspective on the key economic and political events moving global financial markets.

Jonathan Pain began his investment career in the early eighties and has run investment teams in London, Bahrain and Sydney.

He appears regularly on CNBC and Sky Business TV and is an ‘Associate’ of China Matters, an Australian based think tank.

Jonathan was one of a just a few investment strategists that predicted the crash in 2008. Before that he also predicted the bursting of the ‘Technology Bubble.’ More recently, in one of his most controversial and contrarian calls, he predicted that Donald Trump would win the US election.

Having lived in six countries, he now calls Australia home and his weekly commentary is read by government officials, central bankers, leading investment institutions, and his friends all around the globe!

jonathan pain

Although I am not actively involved in macro markets these days, I still have them in my blood, and I enjoy my Saturday mornings, waking up bleerey eyed and getting brought to life with the passionate writings from Jonathan, who I had the privilege of meeting in the 80’s when he was based in the Gulf. I find myself occasionally strongly disagreeing with his gist, but much of the time, that in itself is great, as it causes me to reflect on my own interpretation of events. And for sure, Jonathan is one of the few that gets the relevant scale of the importance of certain issues, including all things China

Lord Jim O’Neil, a former chief economist of Goldman Sachs and a former UK Treasury Minister, is Chair of Chatham House.


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speaking engagements

MGI Worldwide AGM

MGI Worldwide AGM in Dubai

The Sydney Morning Herald

jonathan pain crown perth
Economist and political analyst Jonathan Pain speaks at Crown Perth. CREDIT: DAVID BROADWAY

‘Aggressive’ interest rate cuts and electric car revolution in store for Australia: Pain

By Emma Young
February 15, 2019 – 9.38pm

One of the world’s foremost economic and political experts has predicted an Australian interest rate cut to 0.5 per cent and painted a picture of a future economy that revolves around electric cars, the South East Asian and Chinese economies – and of course, lithium.

He predicted the Reserve Bank would cut rates, “so aggressively it will make our eyes water”; from their current 1.5 per cent to just 0.5 per cent.

Emma YoungWAtoday


jonathan pain cnbc 2019
Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report latest CNBC interviews. CREDIT: CNBC

Analyst sees 20-25% impending correction from coronavirus

Mon, Feb 24 2020

The economic reality from the impact of the coronavirus has changed dramatically over the last three weeks, and markets aren’t pricing it in, says “The Pain Report” author, Jonathan Pain.

Gold is a ‘good diversifier’ in 2020: The Pain Report

Fri, Jan 17 2020

Gold prices have the potential to reach $1,800 per ounce, says Jonathan Pain, author of The Pain Report.

‘Quite significant’ if Iranian general is confirmed dead: Pain Report

Thu, 2 Jan 2020

Following news reports that Iranian General Qassim Soleimani was killed in an airstrike in Baghdad, Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says it’s “no wonder” that crude oil prices are ratcheting higher and the significance of the commander should not be underestimated.

New opportunities arising in UK stocks and sterling: The Pain Report

Mon, 16 Dec 2019

Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says he is bullish on British equities and sterling following last week’s U.K. general election result.

Iran is likely to escalate tensions even further: The Pain Report

Wed, 25 Sep 2019

The attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil processing facilities demonstrated the “extraordinary vulnerability of the very jugular” of the oil supply system, says Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report. He also says U.S. sanctions are “crippling” and “strangling” the Iranian economy.

Resumption of US-China trade talks a ‘step in the right direction’

Thu, 5 Sep 2019

Markets are getting very confused by the rhetoric coming out of Beijing and Washington, says Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report.

Gold is the ‘number one insurance policy’ for now: The Pain Report

Mon, 12 Aug 2019

Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says, looking at the geopolitical conflicts around the world, he doesn’t foresee any of the main players being willing to back down. He says there’s an “extraordinary spread of uncertainty” coming from the geopolitical sphere.

Trump is more ‘transactional’ than ideological in trade talks

Mon, 1 Jul 2019

Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says the Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 summit was not as bad as it could have been, but did not have any substantive outcomes.

The Fed could cut once in the third quarter of 2019: The Pain Report

Wed, 12 Jun 2019

Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says the Fed is going to signal that its next move is a rate cut, but that it is not yet ready to do so.

The RBA could cut rates four times: The Pain Report

Fri, 3 May 2019

Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says he expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 1.5 percent to 0.5 percent over the next couple of years.

Listen ‘very carefully’ to the bond markets: The Pain Report

Mon, 25 Mar 2019

Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report discusses what the inversion in the yield curve means. He says he respects the bond market’s message, which is “unequivocally” and “unambiguously,” that the global economy is slowing.

The US economy will slow down quite a bit in 2019: The Pain Report

Mon, 25 Feb 2019

Jonathan Pain of The Pain Report says the U.S. economy will slow down, but he does not expect it to enter a recession for the time being.

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